THE INVESTMENT CYCLES OF THE POLYSILICON MARKET
https://doi.org/10.17073/1609-3577-2015-3-172-178
Abstract
A historical review of the market of polysilicon from the 1980th has been provided and a periodization of market development has been proposed. 2 development stages of solar power and world polysilicon production have been separated. A description of the historical dynamics of the polysilicon market, including technological estimates, possibilities of delivery, production expenses and application tendencies has been given. It is noted that a new oligopolistic structure of polysilicon market has appeared and new producers, especially in Asia, entered the limited scope of participants. This resulted in a greater than 10−fold increase in top−tier manufacturing capacity to an absoluteтamount of 320.000 MT/year in the period 2005—2015.
A prolonged and detrimental overcapacity−induced price reduction has followed with an average annual price decline of 30% over the past four years. The current average selling prices (ASP) of polysilicon are so low that do not promote the appearance of new participants of the market. However, in the absence of macroeconomic delay of economy, there is a high probability that an overproduction of poly−silicon will be balanced by a growth in its consumption in the next 3−4 years. Then today’s low polysilicon prices will not allow polysilicon industry to transfer into the category of investment attractive ones. Investment attractiveness in the market is a necessary condition of the transition to the following third development stage of the polysilicon market because the construction of modern polysilicon production enterprises requires considerable expenses and the role of this factor will ever increase. Estimates of investment attractiveness of polysilicon price using the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) have been offered. The area of the most probable indicators (ASP, IRR, outputs, various unit invests and cash−costs) has been outlined. These indicators have to be reached so that to achieve the 3rd stage of polysilicon market development.Keywords
photovoltaic,
polysilicon,
over−supply,
Siemens−method,
balance,
supply,
demand,
cost and pricing,
IRR
About the Author
A. V. Naumov
Federal State Research and Design Institute of Rare Metals Industry, Moscow
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Arkady V. Naumov — Senior Researcher
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Review
For citations:
Naumov A.V. THE INVESTMENT CYCLES OF THE POLYSILICON MARKET. Izvestiya Vysshikh Uchebnykh Zavedenii. Materialy Elektronnoi Tekhniki = Materials of Electronics Engineering. 2015;18(3):172-178. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17073/1609-3577-2015-3-172-178
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