Prospects of the Polysilicon Market
https://doi.org/10.17073/1609-3577-2014-4-233-239
Abstract
In this article the balance of polysilicon «supply−demand» has been investigated and an attempt of its forecast through 2018 is made. An assessment of the condition of the solar power industry and world production of polysilicon for 2014 is given. Now it is recognized that the capacities of polysilicon producers worldwide exceed the demand but what will be consumption the next years and when overproduction «will be settled» — there is no concerned point of view. Large vendors who make polysilicon with low manufacturing cost are dominating. The first top 10 vendors — Hemlock, REC, OCI, Wacker, GCL, TBEA XinJiang Silicon, LDK, Daqo New Energy, Tokuyama and SunEdison (ex−MEMC) — have a total production capacity of about 250 KMT. There is also an area of uncertainty in which there are about 80—90 producers with various degree of readiness of production, various reached efficiency and productivity. The description of today’s global polysilicon market is given, including technology assessments, supply capabilities, manufacturing costs, and silicon utilization trends, as well as pricing and supply−demand outlook through 2018. We considered 3 potential scenarios so that to outline area of the most probable development options. It is established that, in the absence of macroeconomic delay of world economy, the probability is high that overproduction of polysilicon will be offset by the growing consumption and demand for new polysilicon production capacities will return in the next 3—4 years.
Keywords
About the Authors
A. V. Nekrasov
JSC NPP KVANT, 16 3−ya Mytishchinskaya, Moscow 129626, Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
General Director, Cand. Sci. (Econ.)
A. V. Naumov
JSC NPP KVANT, 16 3−ya Mytishchinskaya, Moscow 129626, Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Senior Researcher
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Review
For citations:
Nekrasov A.V., Naumov A.V. Prospects of the Polysilicon Market. Izvestiya Vysshikh Uchebnykh Zavedenii. Materialy Elektronnoi Tekhniki = Materials of Electronics Engineering. 2014;(4):233-239. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17073/1609-3577-2014-4-233-239
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